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France and Italy face off in the UEFA Nations League with both teams looking to recover from their disappointing exits in Euro 2024. France were knocked out by Spain in the semi-finals, while Italy struggled and were eliminated by Switzerland in the Round of 16.
France, under Didier Deschamps, will seek to use their home advantage, while Italy under Luciano Spalletti will hope for a more spirited performance after recent setbacks. Both teams are historically strong, but their current form indicates France might have the upper hand.
Key Stats & Insights
- France’s Last 10 Competitive Games: 6 wins, 1 loss, 3 draws, averaging 2.9 goals from 18.9 attempts. They have kept 5 clean sheets and conceded just 0.9 goals per game.
- Italy’s Last 10 Competitive Games: 4 wins, 3 losses, 3 draws, averaging 1.6 goals. Italy has conceded 1.2 goals per game and struggled to score in recent matches, especially in the Euro 2024 tournament.
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Key Stats:
- France have not lost in their last 5 home matches.
- Italy have failed to win any of their last 6 away matches.
- France have kept 6 clean sheets in their past 10 home games.
- Italy have struggled with scoring, failing to score in two of their last three matches.
Team Form and Performance
- France Form: Despite a strong Euro 2024 campaign, France fell short in the semi-finals against Spain. They have been defensively solid, with Maignan in goal, supported by a strong defense led by Saliba and Konate. Mbappe remains their top scorer with 6 goals in the last 10 games, and his presence in the attack is critical.
- Italy Form: Italy have had a rough patch, especially in Euro 2024, where they managed only one win in four matches. They have struggled with their attack, and key injuries and absences have impacted their performance. Federico Chiesa’s form could be vital, but Italy’s inconsistency in front of goal remains a concern.
Head-to-Head Records
- France has won each of their last three meetings against Italy, though all were friendly fixtures. The last competitive encounter between these teams was in Euro 2008, where Italy won 2-0.
Player Form and Availability
- France: Kylian Mbappe remains the star of the team, with his 6 goals and 6 assists in the last 10 games. Maignan has been impressive in goal with 5 clean sheets.
- Italy: Davide Frattesi leads Italy’s scoring charts with 3 goals, while Nicolo Barella has 4 assists. Italy’s attack will rely heavily on players like Mateo Retegui and Mattia Zaccagni.
Predicted Lineups
- France (4-3-3): Mike Maignan; Jules Kounde, William Saliba, Ibrahima Konate, Theo Hernandez; N’Golo Kante, Aurelien Tchouameni, Warren Zaire-Emery; Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Kylian Mbappe.
- Italy (3-4-2-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno, Alessandro Bastoni; Federico Dimarco, Nicolo Fagioli, Davide Frattesi, Lorenzo Pellegrini; Mattia Zaccagni, Mateo Retegui.
Market Analysis (Odds)
- France to Win: 1.67 (60% implied probability)
- Draw: 3.80 (26.3%)
- Italy to Win: 5.00 (20%)
France are clear favorites for this match with home advantage and superior recent form. Italy’s chances of pulling off a victory are slim, and the odds reflect this.
Check the latest odds at our trusted sportsbooks in India:
Parimatch
Predictions
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Final Score Prediction: France 3-1 Italy
France’s superior form and attacking talent, led by Mbappe, should give them the edge. Italy, while capable, have been inconsistent, especially in front of goal. -
Best Bets:
- France to Win: 1.67
- France -1.5 Handicap: For those looking for more value, backing France to win by a larger margin could be rewarding.