AS Roma will face Empoli in what is expected to be a highly competitive Serie A clash. Roma, despite being favorites, have shown some vulnerabilities in their recent form, while Empoli aims to capitalize on their underdog status to secure a positive result. Both teams are searching for consistency, with Roma looking to assert their dominance at home and Empoli hoping to pull off an upset.
Key Stats & Insights
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Roma have won 8 of the last 9 meetings against Empoli, including 6 out of the last 7. However, Empoli did manage a surprising 2-1 victory in their most recent encounter.
- Roma’s Recent Form: Roma has struggled to convert their chances, averaging only 1.0 goals per game in their last 10 matches. However, they have maintained a solid defensive record, conceding just 1.1 goals per game.
- Empoli’s Defensive Struggles: Empoli has struggled defensively, conceding 1.1 goals per match over their last 10 games, while also struggling to create chances with an average of just 0.7 goals per game.
- Home Advantage: Roma have remained unbeaten in their last 2 home games, and their solid home form makes them favorites in this fixture.
Team Form and Performance
Roma:
- Recent League Form: 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses.
- Average goals scored per game: 1.0.
- Top Scorers: Romelu Lukaku (3 goals), Paulo Dybala (1 goal, 2 assists).
- Key Absences: Roma is likely to miss key players such as Tammy Abraham due to injury, which could affect their attacking options.
Empoli:
- Recent League Form: 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses.
- Average goals scored per game: 0.7.
- Top Scorers: M’Baye Niang (3 goals), Matteo Cancellieri (2 goals).
- Key Absences: Empoli will be without Samuele Perisan and Tyronne Ebuehi due to injuries, which could impact their defensive stability.
Head-to-Head Records
- Recent H2H Meetings: Roma has dominated this fixture historically, winning 5 out of the last 6 encounters. The last time they met, Empoli secured a narrow 2-1 victory, breaking Roma’s dominance.
- Goals per game average: 3.83 goals per match in the last 6 meetings, suggesting that this fixture often produces goals.
Player Form and Availability
- Roma: Key players such as Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala will be crucial for Roma’s attack. Dybala, in particular, has been effective in creating chances and could be the difference-maker.
- Empoli: M’Baye Niang will lead Empoli’s attack, hoping to replicate his goal-scoring form. However, Empoli’s overall lack of firepower may make it difficult for them to break down Roma’s defense.
Market Analysis (Odds)
- Roma Win: 1.48 (approximately 67.5% implied probability).
- Draw: 4.33.
- Empoli Win: 6.50.
- Asian Handicap: Empoli +1.25 at odds of -123 suggests that the market expects Empoli to keep the match close, but Roma remains the heavy favorite.
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: The market is evenly split, indicating uncertainty about the total goals, with both teams’ recent form not heavily favoring high-scoring outcomes.
Predictions
Considering Roma’s strong head-to-head record and home advantage, they are expected to secure a win against Empoli. However, Empoli’s ability to keep games close suggests that this might be a tighter contest than anticipated. The predicted scoreline is a 2-1 victory for Roma, which aligns with their defensive solidity and Empoli’s struggles in front of goal.