Key Stats & Insights
- In 7 of the last 10 home matches, Germany has seen over 2.5 goals.
- Germany has scored 2 or more goals in 11 of their past 20 matches.
- Similarly, in 7 of the last 10 away matches, Scotland has seen over 2.5 goals.
- Scotland has scored 2 or more goals in 13 of their past 20 matches.
- Scotland has conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
- Scotland has only won two of their nine previous matches at the European Championship.
- Germany has defeated Scotland in their two past encounters at major tournaments.
Team Form and Performance
Germany – Last 10 Competitive Games
Germany has had a mixed run with 3 wins, 2 losses, and 5 draws. They average 2.1 goals from 6.1 shots on goal and 15.2 attempts per match. With an average possession of 61.9% and 5.6 corners per game, they’ve allowed the opposition to score 1.5 goals from 4.5 shots on goal and 9.8 attempts. Key players include Kai Havertz and Ilkay Gundogan, each with 5 goals, and Serge Gnabry leading in assists with 4.
Scotland – Last 10 Competitive Games
Scotland has been in better form, with 6 wins, 1 loss, and 3 draws. They average 1.9 goals from 9.2 attempts and 3.0 shots on goal per match. They maintain 47.8% possession, with 4.9 corners awarded and 3.1 corners against them. They concede 0.9 goals from 9.5 attempts and 3.5 shots on goal. Scott McTominay tops the scoring chart with 7 goals, followed by John McGinn with 3. Andrew Robertson is the top assist provider with 3 assists, while Angus Gunn has kept 2 clean sheets in the last 10 games.
Head-to-Head Records
Germany and Scotland have faced each other twice in major tournaments, with Germany winning both times. The Germans triumphed 2-1 in the 1986 World Cup group stage and 2-0 in Euro 1992. Despite Scotland having more shots in the Euro 1992 match (21 to Germany’s 19) and a higher expected goals (xG) tally (2.39 to 1.9), Germany emerged victorious thanks to goals from Karl-Heinz Riedle and Stefan Effenberg. Scotland has only one win in their last 13 matches against Germany, a 1-0 friendly victory in 1999 with Don Hutchison scoring.
Player Form and Availability
Germany
Head Coach: Julian Nagelsmann
Germany is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation with key players like Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rüdiger, Jonathan Tah, and Kai Havertz. This experienced squad is poised to perform well on the big stage.
Predicted Lineup: Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rüdiger, Jonathan Tah, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Robert Andrich, Toni Kroos, Jamal Musiala, Ilkay Gundogan, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz.
Scotland
Head Coach: Steve Clarke
Scotland is likely to adopt a 3-2-4-1 formation, featuring key players such as Angus Gunn, Ryan Porteous, Kieran Tierney, Andrew Robertson, and Che Adams. This formation aims to balance defensive solidity with attacking flair.
Predicted Lineup: Angus Gunn, Ryan Porteous, Jack Hendry, Kieran Tierney, Anthony Ralston, Andrew Robertson, John McGinn, Scott McTominay, Callum McGregor, Ryan Christie, Che Adams.
Market Analysis (Odds)
Bookmakers favor Germany to win, with odds of 1.29. A draw is priced at 6, and a win for Scotland is at 10. The odds indicate a high probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Betting on “Both Teams to Score No” is currently priced at 1.62.
Predictions
Germany’s extensive experience and solid squad make them strong favorites for this match. However, Scotland’s resilience and impressive qualifying campaign shouldn’t be overlooked. My tip is an ambitious one: backing Scott McTominay to score. Despite Scotland not being heavily favored, McTominay’s goalscoring form was crucial during the qualifiers. His ability to deliver under pressure could make a significant impact.
In conclusion, while Germany is expected to win, Scotland’s potential to surprise and McTominay’s form make for an exciting encounter. Expect goals and a fiercely contested match at Euro 2024.