Game Preview
Croatia:
Croatia is facing the possibility of early elimination and must win their final group game against Italy to have any hope of advancing to the last 16 of Euro 2024. Torino midfielder Nikola Vlasic is injured and will not play a part in this game. Despite earning only one point from their first two games, Croatia has had more shots (38) and shots on target (15) at Euro 2024 than they had in the entire Euro 2020 group stage. However, they have conceded five goals so far, a record only worse in two major tournament group stages.
Italy:
Italy is looking for a strong response after a lackluster performance in their 1-0 loss to Spain. Coach Roberto Mancini is expected to make some changes, with Bryan Cristante and Mateo Retegui pushing for starts. Despite the defeat, Italy overcame the fastest goal ever scored in the European Championship on Matchday 1, securing a win against Albania. The Azzurri attempted their fewest shots in a Euros game on record against Spain, highlighting their recent struggles.
Key Stats & Insights
- Croatia drew 2-2 with Albania in their previous match, registering five shots on target.
- Italy lost 1-0 to Spain at VELTINS-Arena in their last game.
- Croatia is unbeaten in their eight meetings against Italy since gaining independence, with three wins and five draws. Their last three encounters have all ended 1-1.
- Since the group phase was introduced in 1980, Italy has lost their final group game only once in nine appearances at the European Championship.
Team Form and Performance
Croatia – Last 10 Competitive Games
- Record: 5 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw
- Goals: 2.0 goals per game
- Shots: 6.5 on goal, 15.2 attempts
- Possession: 60.6%
- Corners: 5.3 per game
- Conceded: 1.5 goals per game
Italy – Last 10 Competitive Games
- Record: 5 wins, 3 losses, 2 draws
- Goals: 1.9 goals per game
- Shots: 4.1 on goal, 13.3 attempts
- Possession: 55.8%
- Corners: 5.1 taken, 3.6 conceded
- Conceded: 1.3 goals per game
Head-to-Head Records
Croatia and Italy have met twice at major tournaments, with Croatia winning 2-1 at the 2002 World Cup and a 1-1 draw at Euro 2012. Both teams have evolved significantly since their last encounter nine years ago, adding an element of unpredictability to this match.
Possible Player Form and Availability
Croatia:
- Goalkeeper: Dominik Livakovic
- Defenders: Josip Juranovic, Josko Gvardiol, Josip Sutalo
- Midfielders: Mateo Kovacic, Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, Lovro Majer
- Attackers: Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, Bruno Petkovic
Italy:
- Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Federico Dimarco
- Midfielders: Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Nicolo Barella
- Attackers: Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca
Market Analysis (Odds)
- Full-Time Result: Croatia 3.25, Italy 2.40, Draw 3.10
- Total Goals: Over/Under market evenly split
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes at 1.73
Predictions
Croatia will need to capitalize on their opportunities to score against a resilient Italy side. However, Italy’s structured defense and ability to score make them favorites for this match. Expect a competitive game with Italy edging out Croatia in a 1-2 win. Betting on over 2.5 goals seems prudent, given the attacking potential of both teams.