Atlético Madrid welcomes Girona to the Civitas Metropolitano for what promises to be an exciting La Liga clash. Both teams began their campaigns with draws, and this fixture will be crucial for setting the tone for the rest of the season. Atlético, under Diego Simeone, will be looking to assert their dominance at home, while Girona aims to pull off an upset against a historically challenging opponent.
Key Stats & Insights
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Atlético Madrid:
- Recent Form: 7 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in their last 10 league games.
- Goals: Averaging 1.8 goals per game from 12.1 attempts.
- Defense: Conceding 1.1 goals per game, with Jan Oblak keeping 4 clean sheets in the last 10 matches.
- Top Scorer: Antoine Griezmann with 5 goals in the last 10 games.
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Girona:
- Recent Form: 6 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws in their last 10 league games.
- Goals: Averaging 2.7 goals per game, making them one of the most prolific attacking teams in the league.
- Defense: Conceding 1.3 goals per game, with Paulo Gazzaniga securing 2 clean sheets.
- Top Scorer: Artem Dovbyk with 10 goals in the last 10 games.
Team Form and Performance
- Atlético Madrid have shown consistency in their recent performances, particularly in defense. Their ability to grind out results, even when not at their best, has been a hallmark of Simeone’s tenure. The inclusion of Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher adds more dynamism to their attack, complementing Griezmann’s creative play.
- Girona have been one of the surprise packages of the season, with their attacking play catching many off guard. Their ability to maintain high possession stats and convert opportunities makes them a threat, though their defensive vulnerabilities, especially against stronger opposition, remain a concern.
Head-to-Head Records
- Last 7 Matches: Atlético Madrid have won 4, Girona 1, and 2 draws.
- Recent Clashes: Atlético Madrid’s 3-1 win in the last encounter highlights their dominance, but Girona’s 4-3 victory earlier shows their capability to challenge.
- Average Goals: The fixtures between these teams have been high-scoring, averaging 3.83 goals per match.
Player Form and Availability
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Atlético Madrid:
- Antoine Griezmann: Continues to be the linchpin for Atlético’s attack, scoring 5 goals in recent matches.
- Julian Alvarez: Expected to start, Alvarez brings versatility and finishing prowess, which could be pivotal.
- Injuries: Simeone has a relatively full squad to choose from, with Sorloth’s potential absence being the only notable concern.
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Girona:
- Artem Dovbyk: The Ukrainian forward has been in red-hot form, with 10 goals in the last 10 games, and will be Girona’s primary attacking threat.
- Viktor Tsigankov and Miguel Gutierrez: Key in creating opportunities, both players have been effective in providing assists.
- Injuries: Girona’s squad is largely fit, allowing them to field a strong lineup.
Predicted Lineups
Atlético Madrid (3-5-2):
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DEF: Cesar Azpilicueta, Jose Gimenez, Robin Le Normand
- MID: Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Koke, Samuel Dias Lino, Rodrigo Riquelme
- FWD: Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez
Girona (4-3-3):
- GK: Paulo Gazzaniga
- DEF: Arnau Martinez, David Lopez, Daley Blind, Miguel Gutierrez
- MID: Yangel Herrera, Oriol Romeu, Ivan Martin
- FWD: Cristian Portu, Abel Ruiz, Bryan Gil
Market Analysis (Odds)
Win-Draw-Win Market
- Atlético Madrid: 1.50 (4/11) – Implies a 66.7% chance of winning. Atlético are strong favorites due to their home advantage and superior squad depth. Despite their 2-2 draw in the previous game, the odds reflect confidence in their ability to secure three points, especially given their robust home record.
- Girona: 5.75 (15/2) – Implies a 17.4% chance of winning. Girona’s odds reflect their underdog status. Despite their impressive start to the season and a strong attack, their defensive frailties and Atlético’s home advantage make a Girona victory less likely.
- Draw: 4.50 (7/2) – Implies a 22.2% chance. Given both teams’ form and their recent head-to-head encounters, a draw is a reasonable outcome, especially if Girona can maintain their recent defensive improvement.
Asian Handicap Market
- Girona +1: 1.95 (-105) – This market suggests that Girona, with a one-goal advantage, is expected to keep the match close. This bet would win if Girona draws or wins, and would be refunded if Atlético wins by a single goal. Considering Girona’s strong start to the season and their ability to score, this bet provides value.
- Atlético -1: 2.00 (Evens) – If you back Atlético -1, they need to win by two or more goals for the bet to win. Given their home record and the quality in their squad, this could be a viable option, although Girona’s attacking threat makes it slightly risky.
Total Goals Market
- Over 2.5 Goals: 1.80 (-125) – Given the average of 3.83 goals in recent encounters, this market is favored. Atlético’s attacking firepower combined with Girona’s scoring ability suggests a high-scoring game.
- Under 2.5 Goals: 2.00 (Evens) – This is less favored but could appeal to those expecting a more controlled game from Atlético, focusing on their solid defense.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
- Yes: 1.70 (-143) – This bet is favored, considering both teams’ scoring form. Girona has shown they can score even against top defenses, while Atlético is always likely to find the net at home.
- No: 2.10 (+110) – Less favored, but possible if Atlético dominates possession and controls the game defensively, preventing Girona from creating clear chances.
Correct Score Predictions
- Atlético Madrid 3-1 Girona: 17.00 (+1600) – This is a reasonable prediction given Atlético’s home strength and Girona’s tendency to concede but also score. It aligns with the historical data and both teams’ current form.
- Atlético Madrid 2-1 Girona: 8.50 (+750) – A slightly safer bet, reflecting the possibility of a closer match. Atlético’s defensive capabilities might limit Girona, but Girona’s attacking form suggests they will likely get on the scoresheet.
Predictions
Considering all factors, Atlético Madrid is expected to dominate, but Girona’s attacking prowess could make it a competitive match. The most likely outcome is a 3-1 victory for Atlético, but bettors should consider both teams to score and possibly over 2.5 goals as strong bets.
Final Prediction: Atlético Madrid 3-1 Girona