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Brazil and Ecuador will meet in a critical FIFA World Cup qualification match, with both teams looking to secure valuable points. Brazil are the overwhelming favorites, but Ecuador’s solid defense could make this a closer contest than expected. Brazil come off a penalty shootout loss to Uruguay in the Copa America quarter-finals, while Ecuador also fell in penalties to Argentina. Both sides have been involved in low-scoring games, indicating a likely defensive battle.

Key Stats & Insights

  • Brazil’s Last 10 Competitive Games: 3 wins, 4 losses, 3 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per match, with a defensive record of conceding 1.3 goals per game.
  • Ecuador’s Last 10 Competitive Games: 4 wins, 3 losses, 3 draws, scoring 1.2 goals per game while conceding just 1.1 goals per game.
  • Key Stats:
    • Brazil have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
    • Ecuador have seen Under 2.5 Goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
    • 7 of Ecuador’s last 10 away matches have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS) No.
    • Ecuador have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 matches but failed to score in 3 of those games.

These stats point towards a low-scoring affair, with both teams showing tendencies towards solid defensive play, especially in Ecuador’s away fixtures.

Team Form and Performance

  • Brazil Form: Brazil have struggled in recent outings, having drawn four of their last five matches after 90 minutes. Scoring has been a problem, despite the abundance of attacking talent like Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Neymar. Defensively, they have been inconsistent, conceding seven goals in six qualifiers.
  • Ecuador Form: Ecuador have been tough to beat in the qualifiers, losing just once in six matches. Their strength lies in their defense, conceding only three goals in their qualifiers. However, they lack firepower upfront, managing only five goals across six games.

Head-to-Head Records

  • Brazil lead the head-to-head series with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five meetings.
  • Their last encounter in 2022 ended in a 1-1 draw, a scoreline that has been seen in two of the last three meetings between the sides.

Player Form and Availability

  • Brazil: Neymar, Gabriel Jesus, and Richarlison have not been called up, leaving players like Lucas Paqueta, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo to lead the attack. Alisson Becker will be key in goal, while Marquinhos and Eder Militao are expected to anchor the defense.
  • Ecuador: Ecuador will be missing regulars like goalkeeper Alexander Domínguez and defender Cristian Ramírez. However, Enner Valencia and Kevin Rodriguez will look to lead the attack, with Moises Caicedo providing stability in midfield.

Predicted Lineups

  • Brazil (4-3-3): Alisson Becker; Danilo, Marquinhos, Militao, Guilherme Arana; Bruno Guimaraes, Lucas Paqueta, Andre Gomes; Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Endrick.
  • Ecuador (4-4-2): Hernan Galíndez; Felix Torres, Piero Hincapie, William Pacho, Angelo Preciado; Moises Caicedo, Jhegson Mendez, Kendry Paez, Angel Mena; Enner Valencia, Kevin Rodriguez.

Market Analysis (Odds)

  • Brazil to Win: 1.38 (72% implied probability)
  • Draw: 4.50 (21.7%)
  • Ecuador to Win: 8.00 (10.8%)

Brazil are heavily favored to win, but their recent form suggests it may not be as straightforward. Ecuador’s strong defense could keep the game tight, and backing a low-scoring outcome could be wise.


Check the latest odds at our trusted sportsbooks in India:
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Predictions

  • Final Score Prediction: Brazil 1-0 Ecuador
    Brazil should have the quality to edge this match, but Ecuador’s strong defense may limit their chances. A 1-0 win for Brazil is a reasonable expectation, continuing their trend of low-scoring encounters.
  • Best Bets:
    • Under 2.5 Goals: Given both teams’ recent records, this looks like a solid bet at -111.
    • Brazil to Win: Although at low odds, Brazil are likely to come away with a victory given their home advantage and better overall squad quality.
    • Both Teams to Score – No: With Ecuador struggling in attack, betting on at least one team to not score could pay off at -163.