Key Stats & Insights
- Spain have won their last nine competitive games, including a shootout win in the UEFA Nations League final last summer.
- Both teams have scored in seven of Italy’s last nine competitive fixtures.
- This will be the 11th encounter between Spain and Italy at a major tournament.
- Italy have lost just one of their last 10 matches against Spain.
Team Form and Performance
Spain – Last 10 Competitive Games
- Wins: 9
- Losses: 1
- Goals per game: 3.2
- Attempts per game: 17.8
- Shots on goal per game: 6.0
- Possession: 65.5%
- Corners per game: 6.9
- Goals conceded per game: 1.0
- Corners conceded per game: 1.8
- Top Scorers: Álvaro Morata (5), Ferran Torres (3), Joselu (3)
- Top Assists: Nico Williams (3)
- Clean Sheets: Unai Simón (4)
Italy – Last 10 Competitive Games
- Wins: 6
- Losses: 2
- Draws: 2
- Goals per game: 2.1
- Attempts per game: 14.6
- Shots on goal per game: 4.6
- Possession: 58.1%
- Corners per game: 5.7
- Corners conceded per game: 3.4
- Goals conceded per game: 1.2
- Top Scorers: Davide Frattesi (4), Federico Chiesa (3), Domenico Berardi (2)
- Top Assists: Nicolo Barella (4)
- Clean Sheets: Gianluigi Donnarumma (3)
Head-to-Head Records
- Total Encounters: 11 (in major tournaments)
- European Championship Meetings: 8
- World Cup Meetings: 3
- Spain Wins: 1 (Euro 2012 final)
- Italy Wins: 4
- Draws: 5
Spain have won the last two encounters in the Nations League but have never won three consecutive matches against Italy. Spain have won all three of their previous European Championship meetings with the reigning champions of the competition, reaching the final each time.
Player Form and Availability
Spain
Formation: 4-3-3
- Goalkeeper: Unai Simon
- Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Robin Le Normand, Nacho, Marc Cucurella
- Midfielders: Pedri, Rodri, Fabian Ruiz
- Forwards: Lamine Yamal, Alvaro Morata, Nico Williams
Italy
Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Riccardo Calafiori, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco
- Midfielders: Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Nicolo Barella, Lorenzo Pellegrini
- Forwards: Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca
Market Analysis (Odds)
- Spain: 2.15 (47% probability)
- Italy: 3.60 (27% probability)
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals favored
- Both Teams to Score: Even odds
Predictions
Spain win + Under 2.5 goals
Given the recent form and head-to-head statistics, Spain are likely to edge out Italy in a low-scoring match. Spain’s strong possession-based game and solid defense under Luis de la Fuente suggest a tightly contested match. With players like Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Morata, Spain have the creativity and firepower to break down the Italian defense. Italy, with their strong passing game and solid midfield, will provide a stern test, but Spain’s recent form gives them the slight edge.