Key Stats & Insights
- Spain: Unbeaten in 16 out of their last 17 fixtures, with five consecutive Euro 2024 victories.
- France: Reached the semi-finals without scoring in open play, with Kylian Mbappé netting just one goal from 20 attempts at Euro 2024.
Game Preview
Spain
Spain enters the semi-finals with a perfect record in this tournament, overcoming Germany 2-1 in a gripping quarter-final. Despite the absence of key defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand due to suspension, striker Alvaro Morata remains available. Pedri is doubtful due to injury, but Dani Olmo’s excellent form offers a strong alternative.
Remarkably, Spain has registered lower possession totals in two of their five matches (48% vs Germany, 47% vs Croatia), a deviation from their usual dominance. They aim to reach their fifth European Championship final, having previously succeeded in four out of five semi-final appearances, though they fell to Italy in penalties at Euro 2020.
France
France seeks its fourth Euro final appearance, aiming to replicate their successes in 1984, 2000, and 2016. Didier Deschamps’ side has won 15 of 19 matches since the start of 2023, boasting a 79% win rate, the best in Europe during this period.
In their last game, France edged past Portugal in a penalty shoot-out after a goalless draw. Despite limited possession (40%), they managed five shots on target. France hopes for a full squad, although Kylian Mbappé’s broken nose might impact his performance. Adrien Rabiot returns from suspension, bolstering their midfield.
Team Form and Performance
Spain – Last 10 Competitive Games
- Record: 10 wins
- Goals: 2.6 goals per game
- Shots on Goal: 6.6 per game
- Possession: 64.1%
- Top Scorer: Ferran Torres (4 goals)
- Assists: Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams (3 each)
- Clean Sheets: Unai Simon (5)
France – Last 10 Competitive Games
- Record: 6 wins, 4 draws
- Goals: 2.9 goals per game
- Shots on Goal: 6.4 per game
- Possession: 56.0%
- Top Scorer: Kylian Mbappé (7 goals)
- Assists: Kylian Mbappé (5)
- Clean Sheets: Mike Maignan (6)
Head-to-Head Records
France has the upper hand with two wins out of their last three matches against Spain. Their last encounter in October 2021 ended in a 2-1 victory for France. Historically, their matches have been closely contested, making the upcoming clash highly anticipated.
Possible Player Form and Availability
Spain
- Goalkeeper: Unai Simon
- Defense: Dani Carvajal, Aymeric Laporte, Robin Le Normand, Marc Cucurella
- Midfield: Pedri, Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Nico Williams
- Forwards: Lamine Yamal, Alvaro Morata
France
- Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
- Defense: Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Theo Hernandez
- Midfield: N’Golo Kante, Antoine Griezmann, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga
- Forwards: Kylian Mbappe, Randal Kolo Muani
Market Analysis (Odds)
- Draw: 2.88
- Spain Win: 2.70
- France Win: 3.10
- Under 2.5 Goals: Favorable for a low-scoring match
- Both Teams to Score (No): 1.67, indicating a potential clean sheet for at least one side.
Predictions
Both Spain and France are expected to create scoring opportunities, making it hard to predict a clear winner. A draw seems likely, with potential for extra time or penalties. For betting purposes, Spain on the Draw No Bet market at 1.73 offers a safer option with some insurance.