1. Game Preview
Werder Bremen will host Borussia Dortmund in what promises to be an exciting Bundesliga encounter. Bremen comes into this match after a 2-2 draw against Augsburg, while Dortmund secured a 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. With both teams aiming to gain crucial points, this match could be tightly contested, especially with Bremen looking to leverage their home advantage.
2. Key Stats & Insights
- Werder Bremen: Bremen has covered the +0.75 Asian Handicap line in their last 6 consecutive games, showcasing their ability to stay competitive even against stronger opponents. They have also been consistent in finding the net, scoring in each of their last 6 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund has won each of their last three meetings against Bremen and has maintained a strong defensive record, conceding only 1.2 goals per game on average in their last 10 league outings. They have not lost away to Bremen in their last 8 league games.
3. Team Form and Performance
- Werder Bremen: Bremen’s recent form has been solid, with 3 wins, 3 losses, and 4 draws in their last 10 league games. They average 1.6 goals per game but have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.7 goals per game. Their ability to score consistently makes them a dangerous side, especially at home.
- Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund is in good form, with 6 wins in their last 10 league games. They have been prolific in attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game while maintaining 59.5% possession. However, their defense has shown some weaknesses, particularly on the road.
4. Head-to-Head Records
Dortmund has dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning 5 of the last 6 matches against Werder Bremen. The last encounter between the two sides ended in a 2-1 victory for Dortmund. Historically, Dortmund has had the upper hand with 13 goals scored compared to Bremen’s 6 in their last 6 meetings.
5. Player Form and Availability
- Werder Bremen: Bremen will rely on Marvin Ducksch, their top scorer with 3 goals this season, to lead their attack. They will miss Amos Pieper due to a muscle injury but otherwise have a strong squad available.
- Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund will be without Serhou Guirassy and Yan Couto due to injuries. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, who scored twice in their last match, is expected to be a key player alongside Julian Brandt and Marco Reus.
6. Predicted Lineup
- Werder Bremen (3-4-2-1): Michael Zetterer; Milos Veljkovic, Marco Friedl, Anthony Jung; Mitchell Weiser, Senne Lynen, Jens Stage, Felix Agu; Romano Schmid, Marvin Ducksch; Keke Topp.
- Borussia Dortmund (4-2-3-1): Gregor Kobel; Julian Ryerson, Waldemar Anton, Niklas Süle, Nico Schlotterbeck; Emre Can, Pascal Groß; Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens; Maximilian Beier.
7. Market Analysis (Odds)
- Borussia Dortmund to win: 1.80 (54.1% implied probability)
- Draw: 4.20 (23.8% implied probability)
- Werder Bremen to win: 3.75 (26.7% implied probability)
- Asian Handicap (+0.75 on Werder Bremen): This bet is priced at -116, offering value given Bremen’s competitive form, especially at home.
The odds suggest that Dortmund is the favorite, but Werder Bremen’s resilience makes them a compelling choice for the +0.75 Asian Handicap.
8. Predictions
- Final Score Prediction: Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund’s superior quality and head-to-head record suggest they will edge this contest, but Bremen’s ability to score means they won’t go down without a fight.
- Best Bets: Werder Bremen +1.75 on the Asian Handicap offers good value, given their recent form. Additionally, backing both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at -225 is a strong bet considering the attacking prowess of both sides.