Game Preview
The first leg of the round of sixteen of the UEFA Champions League sees Real Madrid hosting Borussia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabeu. Madrid on their part comes into this match in good form being that out of their last 10 league matches, they have won 7 of them. Borussia Dortmund, however, has managed a rather mediocre season in Bundesliga this year and is at the seventh position, although winning four of their seven matches. Their attacking prowess has not been in doubt as they showed in a 7-1 thrashing of Celtic in the Champions League but domestically their defense has been quite leaky having conceded 12 goals. Real Madrid has been given a slight advantage by the bookmakers as they offer a rate of 1.48 for a home side victory. To achieve that, Dortmund will also have to produce their best performance on a day which they will be without the services of forward Karim Adeyemi who was instrumental in their scintillating performance that saw them brush aside Celtic in the previous round.
Key Stats & Insights
Real Madrid have mentioned hitting the 2+ goals in 15 of the past 20 games respectively. Madrid last ten home games they have won seven out of them and have recorded nine consecutive clean sheets. Borussia Dortmund has scored more than 2 goals in four of the last seven games and this is a clear indication that the have defensive issues.
- Real Madrid has an unbeaten run in the most recent 38 matches on their ground. Dortmund have found the back of the net in their last seven consecutive matches and have considered Julian Brandt as one of their key midfielders.
Team Form and Performance
Real Madrid plays well now and in their last game they defeated Celta Vigo with a score of (2 1), goals by Kylian Mbappe ,Vinicius Junior. They have been very strong at home this season and currently hosting six consecutive home Premier League wins. But still, the Carlo Ancelotti’s team has had some issues with the defense line. An attempt to play a 3 at the back system earlier in the season proved to be disastrous and Real Madrid has been forced to retain their favorite formation, the 4-4-2 diamond which fully utilizes Bellingham skills in the midfield while making it harder to accommodate other players such as Rodrygo.
Borussia Dortmund won their latest Bundesliga match against St. Pauli with a 2–1 score line. Dortmund has also proved a potent attacking side in this term netting 14 goals in the Bundesliga and scoring ten in two champion’s league matches. But their defense has been problematic, and without Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt will be pivotal in creating chances for Dortmund against Madrid.
Head-to-Head Records
Borussia Dortmund has faced Real Madrid three times over the past few years, and Real Madrid has registered a win over the rivals, a decisive 2-0 victory in Champions League 2023-24 final last year. Previously, Madrid have been good on home soil, especially against Dortmund, which they’ve beaten in the last 6 meetings at the Bernabeu.
Player Form and Availability
Kylian Mbappe is the player to look out for in Madrid having scored 8 goals in his last 12 matches, notably one which decided the match against Celta Vigo. Vinicius Junior has also been in good form scoring five goals. Serhou Guirassy will remain a threat upfront for Dortmund but the creativity of Julian Brandt in the midfield will be important since Karim Adeyemi may not be available.
talking about formation, having served under the best managers Nuri Sahin has the tactical advantage that could help Dortmund to prepare better, moreover, German side has changed the formation to cover the lack of Adeyemi.
Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid (4-4-2):
Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Rudiger, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.
Borussia Dortmund (4-2-3-1):
Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Can, Sabitzer; Malen, Brandt, Gross; Guirassy.
Market Analysis (Odds)
- *Real Madrid win:1.48 (rounded up to 68% (as probability is implied at 67.7%))
- Borussia Dortmund win: 5.75 (17.4% implied probability)
- Draw: 30 for 4.75 20.8% implied probability
The over 2.5 goals market appears to be likely to be due to a higher number of goals in the match and there is value in taking both sides to score at 1/175.
Predictions
- Correct score prediction: Real Madrid won the match with 3-1 against Borussia Dortmund
- Betting tips: Real Madrid to wins over Casa Pia plus Both Teams Scores
- Value bet: Real Madrid -1.5 Asian Handicap at a price of +125
Real Madrid on their home ground looks even more formidable, while Dortmund’s defense is far from perfect; Real Madrid should win this match, but Dortmund’s strikers are dangerous enough to score. Value Madrid by the handicap to get extra worth.